NFL Picks & Predictions

Top moneyline picks

• Jacksonville Jaguars to win vs. Cleveland Browns -- 86% win probability (-596).
• Los Angeles Chargers to win vs. Arizona Cardinals -- 79% win probability (-374).
• Detroit Lions to win vs. New Orleans Saints -- 78% win probability (-359).
• Philadelphia Eagles to win vs. Washington Commanders -- 75% win probability (-300).
• Denver Broncos to win vs. Kansas City Chiefs -- 72% win probability (-260).

Biggest market edges

• Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints -- model favors Detroit Lions by 4.8 more points than the market does.
• Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers -- model favors Minnesota Vikings by 4.8 more points than the market does.
• Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots -- model favors Seattle Seahawks by 4.0 more points than the market does.
• Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers -- model favors Los Angeles Rams by 3.3 more points than the market does.
• Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills -- model favors Houston Texans by 2.7 more points than the market does.

Upset alerts

• Denver Broncos to win vs. Kansas City Chiefs -- model gives them 72% despite the market having them as the underdog (+136).
• Miami Dolphins to win vs. Las Vegas Raiders -- model gives them 70% despite the market having them as the underdog (+164).
• Minnesota Vikings to win vs. Green Bay Packers -- model gives them 59% despite the market having them as the underdog (-105).
• Houston Texans to win vs. Buffalo Bills -- model gives them 53% despite the market having them as the underdog (+100).

Anytime touchdown scorers

• Derrick Henry (BAL) -- 72% chance to score a touchdown.
• Chris Olave (NO) -- 66% chance to score a touchdown.
• Colby Parkinson (LA) -- 62% chance to score a touchdown.
• Jaxson Dart (NYG) -- 61% chance to score a touchdown.
• Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) -- 59% chance to score a touchdown.

Most predictable yardage props

• Jayden Reed (GB) -- projected 42 rec yards, likely range 8-50.
• Terry McLaurin (WAS) -- projected 58 rec yards, likely range 24-75.
• Jauan Jennings (MIN) -- projected 42 rec yards, likely range 8-56.
• Xavier Worthy (KC) -- projected 42 rec yards, likely range 8-56.
• Aaron Jones (MIN) -- projected 20 rec yards, likely range 1-29.

See how these predictions are calculated and how accurate the model has been.