This Week's Top Picks

Top moneyline picks

• Jacksonville Jaguars to win vs. Cleveland Browns -- 86% win probability (-596).
• Los Angeles Chargers to win vs. Arizona Cardinals -- 79% win probability (-374).
• Detroit Lions to win vs. New Orleans Saints -- 78% win probability (-359).
• Philadelphia Eagles to win vs. Washington Commanders -- 75% win probability (-295).
• Denver Broncos to win vs. Kansas City Chiefs -- 72% win probability (-260).

Biggest market edges

• Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints -- model favors Detroit Lions by 4.8 more points than the market does.
• Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers -- model favors Minnesota Vikings by 4.8 more points than the market does.
• Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots -- model favors Seattle Seahawks by 4.0 more points than the market does.
• Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers -- model favors Los Angeles Rams by 3.3 more points than the market does.
• Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills -- model favors Houston Texans by 2.7 more points than the market does.

Upset alerts

• Denver Broncos to win vs. Kansas City Chiefs -- model gives them 72% despite the market having them as the underdog (+136).
• Miami Dolphins to win vs. Las Vegas Raiders -- model gives them 71% despite the market having them as the underdog (+164).
• Minnesota Vikings to win vs. Green Bay Packers -- model gives them 59% despite the market having them as the underdog (-105).
• Houston Texans to win vs. Buffalo Bills -- model gives them 53% despite the market having them as the underdog (+100).
• Toledo to win vs. Michigan State -- model gives them 74% despite the market having them as the underdog (+310).

Anytime touchdown scorers

• Caleb Hawkins (UNT) -- 90% chance to score a touchdown.
• Evan Dickens (LIB) -- 83% chance to score a touchdown.
• Kewan Lacy (MISS) -- 80% chance to score a touchdown.
• Jeremiyah Love (ND) -- 80% chance to score a touchdown.
• Byrum Brown (USF) -- 78% chance to score a touchdown.

Most predictable yardage props

• Jaden Bradley (UNLV) -- projected 60 rec yards, likely range 24-76.
• Jaden Bradley (UNLV) -- projected 61 rec yards, likely range 26-77.
• John Michael Gyllenborg (WYO) -- projected 40 rec yards, likely range 16-52.
• Jackson West (WKU) -- projected 25 rec yards, likely range 1-33.
• Germie Bernard (ALA) -- projected 50 rec yards, likely range 14-66.

See how these predictions are calculated and how accurate the model has been.