Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints -- NFL Week 4, October 6, 2026.
Model prediction: New Orleans Saints favored by 0.5, projected total 41.3 points, 51.3% win probability for New Orleans Saints.
Prediction last recalculated September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -16.7, 25th percentile: -8.5, 50th percentile: +0.5, 75th percentile: +9.6, 90th percentile: +17.8. Total points 10th percentile: 24.1, 25th percentile: 32.0, 50th percentile: 41.1, 75th percentile: 50.2, 90th percentile: 58.9.
NO predicted starting offense vs ATL's Base 3-4 D: WR Chris Olave, WR Devaughn Vele, LT Kelvin Banks, LG David Edwards, C Erik McCoy, RG Cesar Ruiz, RT Taliese Fuaga, WR Barion Brown, QB Tyler Shough, TE Juwan Johnson, TE Noah Fant, RB Travis Etienne.
ATL predicted starting offense vs NO's Base 3-4 D: WR Drake London, WR Jahan Dotson, LT Jake Matthews, LG Matthew Bergeron, C Ryan Neuzil, RG Chris Lindstrom, RT Jawaan Taylor, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, QB Michael Penix, TE Kyle Pitts, TE Charlie Woerner, RB Bijan Robinson.
NO's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). ATL's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). NO leans pass-heavy (74% of recent snaps) against ATL's Base 3-4 D.
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