Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers -- NFL Week 4, October 4, 2026.
Model prediction: San Francisco 49ers favored by 3.1, projected total 43.6 points, 58.2% win probability for San Francisco 49ers.
Prediction last recalculated September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -14.1, 25th percentile: -5.9, 50th percentile: +3.1, 75th percentile: +12.2, 90th percentile: +20.4. Total points 10th percentile: 26.0, 25th percentile: 34.4, 50th percentile: 43.6, 75th percentile: 52.8, 90th percentile: 61.3.
SF predicted starting offense vs DEN's Base 3-4 D: WR Mike Evans, WR Deebo Samuel, LT Trent Williams, LG Connor Colby, C Jake Brendel, RG Dominick Puni, RT Colton McKivitz, WR De'Zhaun Stribling, QB Brock Purdy, TE George Kittle, TE Jake Tonges, RB Christian McCaffrey, FB Kyle Juszczyk.
DEN predicted starting offense vs SF's Base 4-3 D: WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Courtland Sutton, LT Garett Bolles, LG Ben Powers, C Luke Wattenberg, RG Quinn Meinerz, RT Mike McGlinchey, WR Marvin Mims, QB Bo Nix, TE Evan Engram, TE Adam Trautman, RB J.K. Dobbins, FB Adam Prentice.
SF's starting WR (De'Zhaun Stribling) is injury-flagged. DEN leans pass-heavy (70% of recent snaps) against SF's Base 4-3 D.
Read the full plain-text report for this game, including every player prop projection.
See how this prediction is calculated and how accurate the model has been.