Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders -- NFL Week 4, October 4, 2026.
Model prediction: Kansas City Chiefs favored by 6.5, projected total 30.1 points, 33.0% win probability for Las Vegas Raiders.
Prediction last recalculated September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -23.4, 25th percentile: -15.8, 50th percentile: -6.6, 75th percentile: +2.3, 90th percentile: +10.6. Total points 10th percentile: 12.4, 25th percentile: 20.9, 50th percentile: 30.1, 75th percentile: 39.3, 90th percentile: 47.6.
LV predicted starting offense vs KC's Base 4-3 D: WR Tre Tucker, WR Jalen Nailor, LT Kolton Miller, LG Spencer Burford, C Tyler Linderbaum, RG Jackson Powers-Johnson, RT Delmar Glaze, WR Jack Bech, QB Kirk Cousins, TE Brock Bowers, TE Michael Mayer, RB Ashton Jeanty, FB Connor Heyward.
KC predicted starting offense vs LV's Base 3-4 D: WR Rashee Rice, WR Xavier Worthy, LT Kahlil Benson, LG Kingsley Suamataia, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Jaylon Moore, WR Tyquan Thornton, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, TE Noah Gray, RB Kenneth Walker.
KC's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known).
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