Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- NFL Week 4, October 4, 2026.
Model prediction: Green Bay Packers favored by 2.2, projected total 47.2 points, 44.1% win probability for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Prediction last recalculated September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -19.6, 25th percentile: -11.2, 50th percentile: -2.4, 75th percentile: +6.7, 90th percentile: +14.7. Total points 10th percentile: 29.5, 25th percentile: 37.8, 50th percentile: 47.2, 75th percentile: 56.5, 90th percentile: 64.6.
TB predicted starting offense vs GB's Base 3-4 D: WR Emeka Egbuka, WR Chris Godwin, LT Tristan Wirfs, LG Ben Bredeson, C Graham Barton, RG Cody Mauch, RT Luke Goedeke, WR Jalen McMillan, QB Baker Mayfield, TE Cade Otton, TE Payne Durham, RB Bucky Irving.
GB predicted starting offense vs TB's Base 3-4 D: WR Christian Watson, WR Jayden Reed, LT Jordan Morgan, LG Aaron Banks, C Sean Rhyan, RG Jacob Monk, RT Zach Bako-Bewele, WR Matthew Golden, QB Jordan Love, TE Tucker Kraft, TE Jonnu Smith, RB MarShawn Lloyd.
TB's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). GB's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). TB leans pass-heavy (70% of recent snaps) against GB's Base 3-4 D. GB leans pass-heavy (68% of recent snaps) against TB's Base 3-4 D.
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