Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans -- NFL Week 4, October 4, 2026.
Model prediction: Houston Texans favored by 11.3, projected total 58.4 points, 77.2% win probability for Houston Texans.
Prediction last recalculated September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -6.4, 25th percentile: +2.2, 50th percentile: +10.9, 75th percentile: +20.0, 90th percentile: +28.5. Total points 10th percentile: 41.2, 25th percentile: 49.4, 50th percentile: 58.5, 75th percentile: 67.7, 90th percentile: 76.1.
HOU predicted starting offense vs DAL's Base 3-4 D: WR Nico Collins, WR Kayshon Boutte, LT Aireontae Ersery, LG Keylan Rutledge, C Evan Brown, RG Ed Ingram, RT Trenton Brown, WR Xavier Hutchinson, QB C.J. Stroud, TE Dalton Schultz, TE Foster Moreau, RB David Montgomery.
DAL predicted starting offense vs HOU's Base 4-3 D: WR CeeDee Lamb, WR George Pickens, LT Tyler Guyton, LG T.J. Bass, C Cooper Beebe, RG Tyler Booker, RT Terence Steele, WR Ryan Flournoy, QB Dak Prescott, TE Jake Ferguson, TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, RB Javonte Williams, FB Hunter Luepke.
HOU's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). DAL's starting LILB (DeMarvion Overshown) is injury-flagged. HOU leans pass-heavy (61% of recent snaps) against DAL's Base 3-4 D. DAL leans pass-heavy (71% of recent snaps) against HOU's Base 4-3 D.
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