Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals -- NFL Week 4, October 4, 2026.
Model prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars favored by 3.8, projected total 51.4 points, 39.7% win probability for Cincinnati Bengals.
Prediction last recalculated September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -21.2, 25th percentile: -12.7, 50th percentile: -4.0, 75th percentile: +5.1, 90th percentile: +13.1. Total points 10th percentile: 33.9, 25th percentile: 42.0, 50th percentile: 51.5, 75th percentile: 60.7, 90th percentile: 68.9.
CIN predicted starting offense vs JAX's Base 4-3 D: WR Ja'Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins, LT Orlando Brown, LG Dylan Fairchild, C Ted Karras, RG Dalton Risner, RT Amarius Mims, WR Andrei Iosivas, QB Joe Burrow, TE Mike Gesicki, TE Drew Sample, RB Chase Brown.
JAX predicted starting offense vs CIN's Base 4-3 D: WR Brian Thomas, WR Parker Washington, LT Anton Harrison, LG Emmanuel Pregnon, C Robert Hainsey, RG Ezra Cleveland, RT Cole Van Lanen, WR Jakobi Meyers, QB Trevor Lawrence, TE Brenton Strange, TE Nate Boerkircher, RB Bhayshul Tuten.
CIN's starting LCB (Dax Hill) is injury-flagged. CIN's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). JAX's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). CIN leans pass-heavy (60% of recent snaps) against JAX's Base 4-3 D.
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