New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills -- NFL Week 4, October 4, 2026.
Model prediction: Buffalo Bills favored by 5.0, projected total 42.3 points, 63.2% win probability for Buffalo Bills.
Prediction last recalculated September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -12.9, 25th percentile: -4.6, 50th percentile: +4.6, 75th percentile: +14.0, 90th percentile: +22.0. Total points 10th percentile: 24.9, 25th percentile: 33.1, 50th percentile: 42.2, 75th percentile: 51.5, 90th percentile: 59.8.
BUF predicted starting offense vs NE's Base 3-4 D: WR D.J. Moore, WR Khalil Shakir, LT Dion Dawkins, LG Alec Anderson, C Connor McGovern, RG O'Cyrus Torrence, RT Spencer Brown, WR Keon Coleman, QB Josh Allen, TE Dalton Kincaid, TE Dawson Knox, RB James Cook, FB Ben VanSumeren.
NE predicted starting offense vs BUF's Base 3-4 D: WR Romeo Doubs, WR Demario Douglas, LT Will Campbell, LG Alijah Vera-Tucker, C Jared Wilson, RG Michael Onwenu, RT Morgan Moses, WR Mack Hollins, QB Drake Maye, TE Hunter Henry, TE Eli Raridon, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, FB Reggie Gilliam.
BUF's starting LDE (T.J. Sanders) is injury-flagged. BUF leans pass-heavy (66% of recent snaps) against NE's Base 3-4 D. NE leans pass-heavy (62% of recent snaps) against BUF's Base 3-4 D.
Read the full plain-text report for this game, including every player prop projection.
See how this prediction is calculated and how accurate the model has been.