Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns -- NFL Week 4, October 2, 2026.
Model prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 5.2, projected total 32.4 points, 36.3% win probability for Cleveland Browns.
Prediction last recalculated September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -22.4, 25th percentile: -14.3, 50th percentile: -5.3, 75th percentile: +4.0, 90th percentile: +12.1. Total points 10th percentile: 15.0, 25th percentile: 23.2, 50th percentile: 32.2, 75th percentile: 41.4, 90th percentile: 49.8.
CLE predicted starting offense vs PIT's Base 3-4 D: WR Jerry Jeudy, WR K.C. Concepcion, LT Spencer Fano, LG Zion Johnson, C Elgton Jenkins, RG Teven Jenkins, RT Tytus Howard, WR Denzel Boston, QB Deshaun Watson, TE Harold Fannin, TE Blake Whiteheart, RB Quinshon Judkins, FB Michael Burton.
PIT predicted starting offense vs CLE's Base 4-3 D: WR DK Metcalf, WR Michael Pittman, LT Troy Fautanu, LG Mason McCormick, C Zach Frazier, RG Spencer Anderson, RT Dylan Cook, WR Roman Wilson, QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Darnell Washington, TE Pat Freiermuth, RB Jaylen Warren, FB Riley Nowakowski.
CLE leans pass-heavy (63% of recent snaps) against PIT's Base 3-4 D. PIT leans pass-heavy (72% of recent snaps) against CLE's Base 4-3 D.
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