Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins -- NFL Week 3, September 27, 2026.
Model prediction: Miami Dolphins favored by 2.2, projected total 34.8 points, 56.0% win probability for Miami Dolphins.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 12:01 PM UTC.
Market spread: Miami Dolphins +7.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -14.9, 25th percentile: -6.7, 50th percentile: +2.2, 75th percentile: +11.4, 90th percentile: +19.5. Total points 10th percentile: 17.2, 25th percentile: 25.2, 50th percentile: 34.4, 75th percentile: 43.7, 90th percentile: 52.1.
MIA predicted starting offense vs KC's Base 4-3 D: WR Malik Washington, WR Jalen Tolbert, LT Patrick Paul, LG Kadyn Proctor, C Aaron Brewer, RG Jonah Savaiinaea, RT Austin Jackson, WR Caleb Douglas, QB Malik Willis, TE Greg Dulcich, TE Will Kacmarek, RB Devon Achane, FB Ben Sims.
KC predicted starting offense vs MIA's Base 4-3 D: WR Rashee Rice, WR Xavier Worthy, LT Josh Simmons, LG Kingsley Suamataia, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Kahlil Benson, WR Tyquan Thornton, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, TE Noah Gray, RB Kenneth Walker.
KC's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). KC leans pass-heavy (66% of recent snaps) against MIA's Base 4-3 D.
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