New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars -- NFL Week 3, September 27, 2026.
Model prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars favored by 1.3, projected total 42.7 points, 53.6% win probability for Jacksonville Jaguars.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -15.7, 25th percentile: -7.5, 50th percentile: +1.4, 75th percentile: +10.6, 90th percentile: +18.9. Total points 10th percentile: 24.9, 25th percentile: 33.5, 50th percentile: 42.7, 75th percentile: 51.8, 90th percentile: 60.0.
JAX predicted starting offense vs NE's Base 3-4 D: WR Brian Thomas, WR Parker Washington, LT Anton Harrison, LG Emmanuel Pregnon, C Robert Hainsey, RG Ezra Cleveland, RT Walker Little, WR Jakobi Meyers, QB Trevor Lawrence, TE Brenton Strange, TE Nate Boerkircher, RB Bhayshul Tuten.
NE predicted starting offense vs JAX's Base 4-3 D: WR A.J. Brown, WR Romeo Doubs, LT Will Campbell, LG Alijah Vera-Tucker, C Jared Wilson, RG Michael Onwenu, RT Morgan Moses, WR Demario Douglas, QB Drake Maye, TE Hunter Henry, TE Eli Raridon, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, FB Reggie Gilliam.
JAX's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). JAX leans pass-heavy (62% of recent snaps) against NE's Base 3-4 D. NE leans pass-heavy (81% of recent snaps) against JAX's Base 4-3 D.
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