Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts -- NFL Week 3, September 27, 2026.
Model prediction: Houston Texans favored by 6.4, projected total 50.1 points, 33.3% win probability for Indianapolis Colts.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Indianapolis Colts +1.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -23.9, 25th percentile: -15.5, 50th percentile: -6.3, 75th percentile: +2.8, 90th percentile: +10.7. Total points 10th percentile: 32.8, 25th percentile: 40.7, 50th percentile: 49.8, 75th percentile: 58.9, 90th percentile: 67.6.
IND predicted starting offense vs HOU's Base 4-3 D: WR Alec Pierce, WR Josh Downs, LT Bernhard Raimann, LG Quenton Nelson, C Tanor Bortolini, RG Matt Goncalves, RT Jalen Travis, WR Keenan Allen, QB Daniel Jones, TE Tyler Warren, TE Mo Alie-Cox, RB Jonathan Taylor.
HOU predicted starting offense vs IND's Base 4-3 D: WR Nico Collins, WR Xavier Hutchinson, LT Aireontae Ersery, LG Wyatt Teller, C Keylan Rutledge, RG Ed Ingram, RT Braden Smith, WR Jaylin Noel, QB C.J. Stroud, TE Dalton Schultz, TE Foster Moreau, RB David Montgomery.
IND's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). HOU's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). HOU leans pass-heavy (72% of recent snaps) against IND's Base 4-3 D.
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