New York Jets at Detroit Lions -- NFL Week 3, September 27, 2026.
Model prediction: Detroit Lions favored by 14.3, projected total 50.5 points, 82.6% win probability for Detroit Lions.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Detroit Lions -9.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -2.5, 25th percentile: +5.4, 50th percentile: +14.3, 75th percentile: +23.3, 90th percentile: +31.0. Total points 10th percentile: 33.2, 25th percentile: 41.7, 50th percentile: 50.6, 75th percentile: 59.9, 90th percentile: 68.2.
DET predicted starting offense vs NYJ's Base 4-3 D: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Jameson Williams, LT Penei Sewell, LG Christian Mahogany, C Juice Scruggs, RG Tate Ratledge, WR Isaac TeSlaa, QB Jared Goff, TE Sam LaPorta, TE Brock Wright, RB Jahmyr Gibbs.
NYJ predicted starting offense vs DET's Base 4-3 D: WR Garrett Wilson, WR Adonai Mitchell, LT Olu Fashanu, LG Dylan Parham, C Josh Myers, RG Joe Tippmann, RT Armand Membou, WR Omar Cooper, QB Geno Smith, TE Mason Taylor, TE Kenyon Sadiq, RB Breece Hall, FB Andrew Beck.
DET's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (11/13 slots known). NYJ's starting LDT (T'Vondre Sweat) is injury-flagged. DET leans pass-heavy (62% of recent snaps) against NYJ's Base 4-3 D.
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