Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills -- NFL Week 3, September 27, 2026.
Model prediction: Buffalo Bills favored by 8.8, projected total 38.8 points, 72.3% win probability for Buffalo Bills.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Buffalo Bills -3.0.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -7.9, 25th percentile: -0.1, 50th percentile: +9.1, 75th percentile: +18.3, 90th percentile: +26.2. Total points 10th percentile: 21.3, 25th percentile: 29.7, 50th percentile: 38.9, 75th percentile: 48.1, 90th percentile: 56.2.
BUF predicted starting offense vs LAC's Base 3-4 D: WR D.J. Moore, WR Khalil Shakir, LT Dion Dawkins, LG Alec Anderson, C Connor McGovern, RG O'Cyrus Torrence, RT Spencer Brown, WR Keon Coleman, QB Josh Allen, TE Dalton Kincaid, TE Dawson Knox, RB James Cook, FB Ben VanSumeren.
LAC predicted starting offense vs BUF's Base 3-4 D: WR Ladd McConkey, WR Quentin Johnston, LT Rashawn Slater, LG Kayode Awosika, C Jake Slaughter, RG Cole Strange, RT Joe Alt, WR Tre Harris, QB Justin Herbert, TE Charlie Kolar, TE David Njoku, RB Omarion Hampton, FB Alec Ingold.
LAC leans pass-heavy (75% of recent snaps) against BUF's Base 3-4 D.
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