Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs -- NFL Week 2, September 21, 2026.
Model prediction: Kansas City Chiefs favored by 3.0, projected total 40.2 points, 58.0% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -14.2, 25th percentile: -5.8, 50th percentile: +2.9, 75th percentile: +11.8, 90th percentile: +19.9. Total points 10th percentile: 23.0, 25th percentile: 31.2, 50th percentile: 40.1, 75th percentile: 49.4, 90th percentile: 57.7.
KC predicted starting offense vs IND's Base 4-3 D: WR Rashee Rice, WR Xavier Worthy, LT Josh Simmons, LG Kingsley Suamataia, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Kahlil Benson, WR Tyquan Thornton, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, TE Noah Gray, RB Kenneth Walker.
IND predicted starting offense vs KC's Base 4-3 D: WR Alec Pierce, WR Josh Downs, LT Bernhard Raimann, LG Quenton Nelson, C Tanor Bortolini, RG Matt Goncalves, RT Jalen Travis, WR Keenan Allen, QB Daniel Jones, TE Tyler Warren, TE Mo Alie-Cox, RB Jonathan Taylor.
KC's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). IND's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). KC leans pass-heavy (66% of recent snaps) against IND's Base 4-3 D.
Read the full plain-text report for this game, including every player prop projection.
See how this prediction is calculated and how accurate the model has been.