Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots -- NFL Week 2, September 20, 2026.
Model prediction: New England Patriots favored by 8.1, projected total 40.2 points, 70.8% win probability for New England Patriots.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: New England Patriots -4.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -9.1, 25th percentile: -0.8, 50th percentile: +8.2, 75th percentile: +16.9, 90th percentile: +25.5. Total points 10th percentile: 22.9, 25th percentile: 31.0, 50th percentile: 40.4, 75th percentile: 49.5, 90th percentile: 57.9.
NE predicted starting offense vs PIT's Base 3-4 D: WR A.J. Brown, WR Romeo Doubs, LT Will Campbell, LG Alijah Vera-Tucker, C Jared Wilson, RG Michael Onwenu, RT Morgan Moses, WR Demario Douglas, QB Drake Maye, TE Hunter Henry, TE Eli Raridon, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, FB Reggie Gilliam.
PIT predicted starting offense vs NE's Base 3-4 D: WR DK Metcalf, WR Michael Pittman, LT Troy Fautanu, LG Mason McCormick, C Zach Frazier, RG Spencer Anderson, RT Dylan Cook, WR Roman Wilson, QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Pat Freiermuth, TE Darnell Washington, RB Jaylen Warren, FB Riley Nowakowski.
NE leans pass-heavy (81% of recent snaps) against PIT's Base 3-4 D. PIT leans pass-heavy (68% of recent snaps) against NE's Base 3-4 D.
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