Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills -- NFL Week 2, September 18, 2026.
Model prediction: Buffalo Bills favored by 6.6, projected total 55.8 points, 67.1% win probability for Buffalo Bills.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 12:01 PM UTC.
Market spread: Buffalo Bills -3.0.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -10.4, 25th percentile: -2.4, 50th percentile: +6.7, 75th percentile: +15.5, 90th percentile: +23.8. Total points 10th percentile: 38.5, 25th percentile: 46.7, 50th percentile: 56.1, 75th percentile: 65.2, 90th percentile: 73.6.
BUF predicted starting offense vs DET's Base 4-3 D: WR D.J. Moore, WR Khalil Shakir, LT Dion Dawkins, LG Alec Anderson, C Connor McGovern, RG O'Cyrus Torrence, RT Spencer Brown, WR Keon Coleman, QB Josh Allen, TE Dalton Kincaid, TE Dawson Knox, RB James Cook, FB Ben VanSumeren.
DET predicted starting offense vs BUF's Base 3-4 D: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Jameson Williams, LT Penei Sewell, LG Christian Mahogany, C Juice Scruggs, RG Tate Ratledge, WR Isaac TeSlaa, QB Jared Goff, TE Sam LaPorta, TE Brock Wright, RB Jahmyr Gibbs.
DET's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (11/13 slots known). DET leans pass-heavy (62% of recent snaps) against BUF's Base 3-4 D.
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