Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs -- NFL Week 1, September 15, 2026.
Model prediction: Denver Broncos favored by 6.4, projected total 34.9 points, 33.2% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3.0.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -23.6, 25th percentile: -15.4, 50th percentile: -6.2, 75th percentile: +2.6, 90th percentile: +11.2. Total points 10th percentile: 17.5, 25th percentile: 25.7, 50th percentile: 35.0, 75th percentile: 44.1, 90th percentile: 52.5.
KC predicted starting offense vs DEN's Base 3-4 D: WR Rashee Rice, WR Xavier Worthy, LT Josh Simmons, LG Kingsley Suamataia, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Kahlil Benson, WR Tyquan Thornton, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, TE Noah Gray, RB Kenneth Walker.
DEN predicted starting offense vs KC's Base 4-3 D: WR Courtland Sutton, WR Jaylen Waddle, LT Garett Bolles, LG Ben Powers, C Luke Wattenberg, RG Quinn Meinerz, RT Mike McGlinchey, WR Troy Franklin, QB Bo Nix, TE Evan Engram, TE Adam Trautman, RB J.K. Dobbins, FB Adam Prentice.
KC's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). KC leans pass-heavy (66% of recent snaps) against DEN's Base 3-4 D. DEN leans pass-heavy (64% of recent snaps) against KC's Base 4-3 D.
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