Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders -- NFL Week 1, September 13, 2026.
Model prediction: Miami Dolphins favored by 5.7, projected total 36.6 points, 35.0% win probability for Las Vegas Raiders.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Las Vegas Raiders -3.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -22.7, 25th percentile: -14.8, 50th percentile: -5.7, 75th percentile: +3.2, 90th percentile: +11.2. Total points 10th percentile: 19.2, 25th percentile: 27.4, 50th percentile: 36.5, 75th percentile: 45.8, 90th percentile: 54.2.
LV predicted starting offense vs MIA's Base 4-3 D: WR Tre Tucker, WR Jalen Nailor, LT Kolton Miller, LG Spencer Burford, C Tyler Linderbaum, RG Jackson Powers-Johnson, RT Delmar Glaze, WR Jack Bech, QB Kirk Cousins, TE Brock Bowers, TE Michael Mayer, RB Ashton Jeanty, FB Connor Heyward.
MIA predicted starting offense vs LV's Base 3-4 D: WR Malik Washington, WR Jalen Tolbert, LT Patrick Paul, LG Kadyn Proctor, C Aaron Brewer, RG Jonah Savaiinaea, RT Austin Jackson, WR Caleb Douglas, QB Malik Willis, TE Greg Dulcich, TE Will Kacmarek, RB Devon Achane, FB Ben Sims.
Read the full plain-text report for this game, including every player prop projection.
See how this prediction is calculated and how accurate the model has been.