Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers -- NFL Week 1, September 13, 2026.
Model prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 3.8, projected total 43.8 points, 60.1% win probability for Pittsburgh Steelers.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -12.9, 25th percentile: -5.1, 50th percentile: +3.9, 75th percentile: +12.7, 90th percentile: +20.8. Total points 10th percentile: 26.3, 25th percentile: 34.6, 50th percentile: 43.7, 75th percentile: 52.7, 90th percentile: 60.9.
PIT predicted starting offense vs ATL's Base 3-4 D: WR DK Metcalf, WR Michael Pittman, LT Troy Fautanu, LG Mason McCormick, C Zach Frazier, RG Spencer Anderson, RT Dylan Cook, WR Roman Wilson, QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Pat Freiermuth, TE Darnell Washington, RB Jaylen Warren, FB Riley Nowakowski.
ATL predicted starting offense vs PIT's Base 3-4 D: WR Drake London, WR Jahan Dotson, LT Jake Matthews, LG Matthew Bergeron, C Ryan Neuzil, RG Chris Lindstrom, RT Jawaan Taylor, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, QB Tua Tagovailoa, TE Kyle Pitts, TE Charlie Woerner, RB Bijan Robinson.
ATL's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). PIT leans pass-heavy (68% of recent snaps) against ATL's Base 3-4 D. ATL leans pass-heavy (62% of recent snaps) against PIT's Base 3-4 D.
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