Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars -- NFL Week 1, September 13, 2026.
Model prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars favored by 13.5, projected total 41.9 points, 81.2% win probability for Jacksonville Jaguars.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -3.4, 25th percentile: +4.7, 50th percentile: +13.6, 75th percentile: +22.7, 90th percentile: +30.8. Total points 10th percentile: 24.4, 25th percentile: 32.8, 50th percentile: 41.9, 75th percentile: 51.0, 90th percentile: 59.4.
JAX predicted starting offense vs CLE's Base 4-3 D: WR Brian Thomas, WR Parker Washington, LT Anton Harrison, LG Emmanuel Pregnon, C Robert Hainsey, RG Ezra Cleveland, RT Walker Little, WR Jakobi Meyers, QB Trevor Lawrence, TE Brenton Strange, TE Nate Boerkircher, RB Bhayshul Tuten.
CLE predicted starting offense vs JAX's Base 4-3 D: WR Jerry Jeudy, WR K.C. Concepcion, LT Spencer Fano, LG Zion Johnson, C Elgton Jenkins, RG Teven Jenkins, RT Tytus Howard, WR Denzel Boston, QB Deshaun Watson, TE Harold Fannin, TE Blake Whiteheart, RB Quinshon Judkins, FB Michael Burton.
JAX's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). JAX leans pass-heavy (62% of recent snaps) against CLE's Base 4-3 D.
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