Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans -- NFL Week 1, September 13, 2026.
Model prediction: Houston Texans favored by 1.2, projected total 46.6 points, 53.3% win probability for Houston Texans.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Houston Texans +1.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -16.0, 25th percentile: -7.6, 50th percentile: +1.2, 75th percentile: +10.4, 90th percentile: +18.6. Total points 10th percentile: 29.4, 25th percentile: 37.5, 50th percentile: 46.7, 75th percentile: 55.8, 90th percentile: 64.1.
HOU predicted starting offense vs BUF's Base 3-4 D: WR Nico Collins, WR Xavier Hutchinson, LT Aireontae Ersery, LG Wyatt Teller, C Keylan Rutledge, RG Ed Ingram, RT Braden Smith, WR Jaylin Noel, QB C.J. Stroud, TE Dalton Schultz, TE Foster Moreau, RB David Montgomery.
BUF predicted starting offense vs HOU's Base 4-3 D: WR D.J. Moore, WR Khalil Shakir, LT Dion Dawkins, LG Alec Anderson, C Connor McGovern, RG O'Cyrus Torrence, RT Spencer Brown, WR Keon Coleman, QB Josh Allen, TE Dalton Kincaid, TE Dawson Knox, RB James Cook, FB Ben VanSumeren.
HOU's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). HOU leans pass-heavy (72% of recent snaps) against BUF's Base 3-4 D.
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