New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions -- NFL Week 1, September 13, 2026.
Model prediction: Detroit Lions favored by 9.3, projected total 43.2 points, 73.4% win probability for Detroit Lions.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Detroit Lions -7.0.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -7.8, 25th percentile: +0.2, 50th percentile: +9.2, 75th percentile: +18.3, 90th percentile: +26.1. Total points 10th percentile: 25.9, 25th percentile: 34.1, 50th percentile: 43.6, 75th percentile: 52.6, 90th percentile: 60.6.
DET predicted starting offense vs NO's Base 3-4 D: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Jameson Williams, LT Penei Sewell, LG Christian Mahogany, C Juice Scruggs, RG Tate Ratledge, WR Isaac TeSlaa, QB Jared Goff, TE Sam LaPorta, TE Brock Wright, RB Jahmyr Gibbs.
NO predicted starting offense vs DET's Base 4-3 D: WR Chris Olave, WR Jordyn Tyson, LT Kelvin Banks, LG David Edwards, C Erik McCoy, RG Cesar Ruiz, RT Taliese Fuaga, WR Devaughn Vele, QB Tyler Shough, TE Juwan Johnson, TE Noah Fant, RB Travis Etienne.
DET's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (11/13 slots known). NO's starting WR (Jordyn Tyson) is injury-flagged. NO's offensive depth chart isn't fully set yet (12/13 slots known). DET leans pass-heavy (62% of recent snaps) against NO's Base 3-4 D. NO leans pass-heavy (66% of recent snaps) against DET's Base 4-3 D.
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