New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks -- NFL Week 1, September 10, 2026.
Model prediction: Seattle Seahawks favored by 5.8, projected total 38.3 points, 65.3% win probability for Seattle Seahawks.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC.
Market spread: Seattle Seahawks -3.5.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -11.4, 25th percentile: -3.3, 50th percentile: +5.7, 75th percentile: +14.6, 90th percentile: +22.9. Total points 10th percentile: 21.2, 25th percentile: 29.1, 50th percentile: 38.4, 75th percentile: 47.5, 90th percentile: 55.6.
SEA predicted starting offense vs NE's Base 3-4 D: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Rashid Shaheed, LT Charles Cross, LG Grey Zabel, C Jalen Sundell, RG Anthony Bradford, RT Abraham Lucas, WR Cooper Kupp, QB Sam Darnold, TE A.J. Barner, TE Eric Saubert, RB Zach Charbonnet, FB Brady Russell.
NE predicted starting offense vs SEA's Base 3-4 D: WR A.J. Brown, WR Romeo Doubs, LT Will Campbell, LG Alijah Vera-Tucker, C Jared Wilson, RG Michael Onwenu, RT Morgan Moses, WR Demario Douglas, QB Drake Maye, TE Hunter Henry, TE Eli Raridon, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, FB Reggie Gilliam.
NE leans pass-heavy (81% of recent snaps) against SEA's Base 3-4 D.
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