Texas State at San Diego State -- NCAA Week 5, October 4, 2026.
Model prediction: San Diego State favored by 5.1, projected total 48.6 points, 61.6% win probability for San Diego State.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -17.2, 25th percentile: -6.7, 50th percentile: +5.2, 75th percentile: +16.9, 90th percentile: +27.3. Total points 10th percentile: 27.1, 25th percentile: 37.0, 50th percentile: 48.3, 75th percentile: 59.6, 90th percentile: 69.6.
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