Utah State at Boise State -- NCAA Week 5, October 3, 2026.
Model prediction: Boise State favored by 17.9, projected total 48.7 points, 84.2% win probability for Boise State.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -4.4, 25th percentile: +6.5, 50th percentile: +18.2, 75th percentile: +29.8, 90th percentile: +40.0. Total points 10th percentile: 27.4, 25th percentile: 37.7, 50th percentile: 49.1, 75th percentile: 60.0, 90th percentile: 69.9.
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