Memphis at Charlotte -- NCAA Week 5, October 3, 2026.
Model prediction: Memphis favored by 20.2, projected total 49.5 points, 13.1% win probability for Charlotte.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -42.6, 25th percentile: -31.8, 50th percentile: -20.0, 75th percentile: -8.6, 90th percentile: +1.7. Total points 10th percentile: 27.7, 25th percentile: 38.3, 50th percentile: 49.5, 75th percentile: 60.8, 90th percentile: 70.6.
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