Virginia at Florida State -- NCAA Week 5, October 3, 2026.
Model prediction: Virginia favored by 5.5, projected total 32.3 points, 37.3% win probability for Florida State.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -27.6, 25th percentile: -17.3, 50th percentile: -5.4, 75th percentile: +6.5, 90th percentile: +16.5. Total points 10th percentile: 11.1, 25th percentile: 20.8, 50th percentile: 32.4, 75th percentile: 43.7, 90th percentile: 53.2.
Read the full plain-text report for this game, including every player prop projection.
See how this prediction is calculated and how accurate the model has been.