Alabama at Mississippi State -- NCAA Week 5, October 3, 2026.
Model prediction: Alabama favored by 11.9, projected total 61.4 points, 24.8% win probability for Mississippi State.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -34.5, 25th percentile: -24.0, 50th percentile: -12.1, 75th percentile: -0.4, 90th percentile: +10.2. Total points 10th percentile: 39.7, 25th percentile: 50.1, 50th percentile: 61.5, 75th percentile: 72.5, 90th percentile: 82.9.
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