Michigan State at Wisconsin -- NCAA Week 5, October 3, 2026.
Model prediction: Wisconsin favored by 7.7, projected total 30.6 points, 67.2% win probability for Wisconsin.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -14.3, 25th percentile: -4.1, 50th percentile: +8.0, 75th percentile: +19.7, 90th percentile: +30.0. Total points 10th percentile: 8.6, 25th percentile: 18.7, 50th percentile: 30.6, 75th percentile: 41.9, 90th percentile: 51.8.
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