Arkansas State at Louisiana -- NCAA Week 5, October 3, 2026.
Model prediction: Louisiana favored by 5.2, projected total 57.3 points, 62.0% win probability for Louisiana.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -17.1, 25th percentile: -6.1, 50th percentile: +5.5, 75th percentile: +17.0, 90th percentile: +27.4. Total points 10th percentile: 35.8, 25th percentile: 46.1, 50th percentile: 57.2, 75th percentile: 68.7, 90th percentile: 78.9.
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