Purdue at Illinois -- NCAA Week 5, October 3, 2026.
Model prediction: Illinois favored by 19.8, projected total 47.9 points, 86.4% win probability for Illinois.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -2.3, 25th percentile: +7.8, 50th percentile: +19.8, 75th percentile: +31.4, 90th percentile: +41.6. Total points 10th percentile: 26.6, 25th percentile: 36.6, 50th percentile: 47.6, 75th percentile: 59.2, 90th percentile: 69.4.
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