Toledo at Ball State -- NCAA Week 5, October 3, 2026.
Model prediction: Toledo favored by 8.1, projected total 42.5 points, 31.9% win probability for Ball State.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -30.4, 25th percentile: -19.6, 50th percentile: -8.1, 75th percentile: +4.1, 90th percentile: +14.2. Total points 10th percentile: 20.7, 25th percentile: 31.0, 50th percentile: 41.9, 75th percentile: 53.3, 90th percentile: 63.5.
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