Michigan at Minnesota -- NCAA Week 5, October 3, 2026.
Model prediction: Michigan favored by 8.3, projected total 38.2 points, 31.5% win probability for Minnesota.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -30.7, 25th percentile: -20.0, 50th percentile: -8.4, 75th percentile: +3.1, 90th percentile: +13.6. Total points 10th percentile: 16.5, 25th percentile: 27.0, 50th percentile: 38.1, 75th percentile: 49.4, 90th percentile: 59.5.
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