San José State at Hawai'i -- NCAA Week 5, October 4, 2026.
Model prediction: Hawai'i favored by 13.1, projected total 55.2 points, 77.3% win probability for Hawai'i.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -9.7, 25th percentile: +1.0, 50th percentile: +13.1, 75th percentile: +24.9, 90th percentile: +35.6. Total points 10th percentile: 34.0, 25th percentile: 44.1, 50th percentile: 55.4, 75th percentile: 66.7, 90th percentile: 76.7.
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