Louisville at NC State -- NCAA Week 5, October 3, 2026.
Model prediction: Louisville favored by 1.3, projected total 54.1 points, 47.0% win probability for NC State.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -23.5, 25th percentile: -13.3, 50th percentile: -1.7, 75th percentile: +10.2, 90th percentile: +20.6. Total points 10th percentile: 32.6, 25th percentile: 42.8, 50th percentile: 54.1, 75th percentile: 65.5, 90th percentile: 75.8.
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