West Virginia at Iowa State -- NCAA Week 5, October 3, 2026.
Model prediction: Iowa State favored by 9.5, projected total 49.1 points, 70.9% win probability for Iowa State.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -12.6, 25th percentile: -2.4, 50th percentile: +9.2, 75th percentile: +20.7, 90th percentile: +31.6. Total points 10th percentile: 27.6, 25th percentile: 37.9, 50th percentile: 48.9, 75th percentile: 60.4, 90th percentile: 70.9.
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