North Texas at Tulsa -- NCAA Week 5, October 2, 2026.
Model prediction: North Texas favored by 8.6, projected total 70.8 points, 30.8% win probability for Tulsa.
Prediction last recalculated September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -31.1, 25th percentile: -20.6, 50th percentile: -9.1, 75th percentile: +2.6, 90th percentile: +13.1. Total points 10th percentile: 49.1, 25th percentile: 59.4, 50th percentile: 70.8, 75th percentile: 82.0, 90th percentile: 92.7.
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