Troy at Utah State -- NCAA Week 4, September 26, 2026.
Model prediction: Troy favored by 0.9, projected total 44.8 points, 48.0% win probability for Utah State.
Prediction last recalculated September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -22.9, 25th percentile: -12.4, 50th percentile: -0.5, 75th percentile: +11.1, 90th percentile: +21.1. Total points 10th percentile: 22.5, 25th percentile: 33.1, 50th percentile: 44.6, 75th percentile: 56.0, 90th percentile: 66.3.
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