Missouri State at SMU -- NCAA Week 4, September 26, 2026.
Model prediction: SMU favored by 34.1, projected total 54.0 points, 96.1% win probability for SMU.
Prediction last recalculated September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: +12.3, 25th percentile: +22.7, 50th percentile: +34.1, 75th percentile: +45.8, 90th percentile: +56.1. Total points 10th percentile: 32.6, 25th percentile: 42.7, 50th percentile: 54.2, 75th percentile: 65.5, 90th percentile: 75.9.
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