Wisconsin at Penn State -- NCAA Week 4, September 26, 2026.
Model prediction: Penn State favored by 20.2, projected total 35.0 points, 86.9% win probability for Penn State.
Prediction last recalculated September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -1.9, 25th percentile: +8.6, 50th percentile: +20.2, 75th percentile: +32.1, 90th percentile: +42.6. Total points 10th percentile: 14.0, 25th percentile: 24.2, 50th percentile: 35.3, 75th percentile: 46.7, 90th percentile: 56.8.
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