App State at NC State -- NCAA Week 4, September 26, 2026.
Model prediction: NC State favored by 15.1, projected total 58.1 points, 80.4% win probability for NC State.
Prediction last recalculated September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -7.0, 25th percentile: +3.8, 50th percentile: +15.4, 75th percentile: +27.2, 90th percentile: +37.6. Total points 10th percentile: 36.9, 25th percentile: 46.6, 50th percentile: 57.9, 75th percentile: 69.5, 90th percentile: 79.8.
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