Ball State at Kent State -- NCAA Week 4, September 26, 2026.
Model prediction: Kent State favored by 1.7, projected total 45.0 points, 54.0% win probability for Kent State.
Prediction last recalculated September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -20.9, 25th percentile: -10.2, 50th percentile: +1.5, 75th percentile: +13.4, 90th percentile: +24.2. Total points 10th percentile: 23.7, 25th percentile: 33.7, 50th percentile: 45.0, 75th percentile: 56.4, 90th percentile: 66.5.
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