South Florida at Bowling Green -- NCAA Week 4, September 26, 2026.
Model prediction: South Florida favored by 17.2, projected total 51.3 points, 16.6% win probability for Bowling Green.
Prediction last recalculated September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -39.3, 25th percentile: -29.0, 50th percentile: -17.1, 75th percentile: -5.4, 90th percentile: +4.8. Total points 10th percentile: 30.0, 25th percentile: 39.8, 50th percentile: 50.9, 75th percentile: 62.4, 90th percentile: 72.8.
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