San Diego State at Toledo -- NCAA Week 4, September 26, 2026.
Model prediction: Toledo favored by 1.7, projected total 31.7 points, 53.9% win probability for Toledo.
Prediction last recalculated September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -20.2, 25th percentile: -9.8, 50th percentile: +1.9, 75th percentile: +13.3, 90th percentile: +24.0. Total points 10th percentile: 10.2, 25th percentile: 20.4, 50th percentile: 31.7, 75th percentile: 42.9, 90th percentile: 53.2.
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