Northern Illinois at Georgia State -- NCAA Week 4, September 26, 2026.
Model prediction: Georgia State favored by 6.5, projected total 44.6 points, 64.7% win probability for Georgia State.
Prediction last recalculated September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -15.7, 25th percentile: -4.9, 50th percentile: +6.9, 75th percentile: +18.6, 90th percentile: +29.1. Total points 10th percentile: 23.6, 25th percentile: 33.3, 50th percentile: 44.7, 75th percentile: 56.0, 90th percentile: 66.1.
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