Colorado State at UTSA -- NCAA Week 4, September 26, 2026.
Model prediction: UTSA favored by 19.7, projected total 69.8 points, 86.4% win probability for UTSA.
Prediction last recalculated September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -2.2, 25th percentile: +8.3, 50th percentile: +20.1, 75th percentile: +31.3, 90th percentile: +41.9. Total points 10th percentile: 48.7, 25th percentile: 58.7, 50th percentile: 70.3, 75th percentile: 81.5, 90th percentile: 91.9.
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