Kansas State at Cincinnati -- NCAA Week 4, September 26, 2026.
Model prediction: Kansas State favored by 2.1, projected total 62.8 points, 45.1% win probability for Cincinnati.
Prediction last recalculated September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -24.4, 25th percentile: -13.6, 50th percentile: -1.9, 75th percentile: +9.7, 90th percentile: +20.0. Total points 10th percentile: 40.8, 25th percentile: 51.3, 50th percentile: 62.9, 75th percentile: 73.8, 90th percentile: 84.1.
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