North Texas at Texas State -- NCAA Week 3, September 19, 2026.
Model prediction: Texas State favored by 2.1, projected total 91.7 points, 55.0% win probability for Texas State.
Prediction last recalculated August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC.
Simulated range of outcomes (10,000 simulations) -- home margin 10th percentile: -20.8, 25th percentile: -10.0, 50th percentile: +1.9, 75th percentile: +13.8, 90th percentile: +24.3. Total points 10th percentile: 70.5, 25th percentile: 80.5, 50th percentile: 91.6, 75th percentile: 103.3, 90th percentile: 113.3.
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